Prime Picks: UFC on ABC 9 ‘Whittaker vs. de Ridder’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship continues to put on events that see numerous wide betting lines, with seemingly larger gaps than shows in the past. A third of the matches on this lineup see a favorite at -400 or higher, so it takes a little digging to find gold. Join this special themed edition of Prime Picks for UFC on ABC 9, also known as UFC Abu Dhabi, where we pitch four identically labeled betting lines that all have a real chance to score.

Robert Whittaker (-150)

Even at the age of 34, coming off of a literally jawbreaking performance, “Bobby Knuckles” should be slept on by no one. What Khamzat Chimaev did to him is something only that Chechnyan can replicate, and Reinier de Ridder will not be able to follow that simple blueprint for success. Many have tried to take Whittaker down over the years, but Yoel Romero is the only one to land more than one in an outing against Whittaker other than Chimaev. De Ridder will try, but Whittaker is quick on the counter and his head kick can wrap up around the guard like few in the business.

Even with some success on the feet against wrestler Bo Nickal, De Ridder should be singularly focused with Whittaker on taking him down and keeping him there. The Aussie has an outstanding get-up game, rarely getting stuck in a precarious position for long. De Ridder will need to slow Whittaker down with his attempts, forcing “The Reaper” to tire based on nonstop attempts. If the first one comes, the next may be easier. Setting up back take might fail the first few efforts, but force the middleweight champ to fight off his back foot while stuffing shots and it might be a different story. Unless de Ridder can either keep Whittaker on the mat for 15 minutes or catch him with something in an exchange, Whittaker has all of the tools to make life miserable for “RDR.” The ex-champ will do everything in his power to both counter and advertise the price of admission, and de Ridder will have to walk a tightrope to get his hand raised.

Petr Yan Wins by Decision (-150)

We give thanks to Sherdog’s Sean Sheehan for pointing out this specific line on his own betting spread. In order to have all four picks match with -150, we started with this one and found the rest of our options fall in line brilliantly. While Whittaker above is the sole moneyline, we have two massive favorites to pick from in the form of Yan and Sharabutdin Magomedov, drilling down to the perfect prop that happens to line up beautifully. It has been over five years since Yan recorded a finish, albeit in part because he has been facing the top echelon of his division. If he beats Marcus McGhee, it will most likely be at the hands of the judges.

It may come as a surprise that statistically—without the same sample size or list of adversaries—McGhee is not only the more active volume striker of the two, but he is also more defensively sound than Yan. It is anyone’s guess as to how McGhee would stack up if thrust into a murderer’s row of top-fivers like Yan has been exposed to of late. What he can lean on thus far is his ironclad takedown defense, which can help him stave off the occasional attempt from the Russian. Yan is much more suited to long-term engagements, with plenty of stamina to go three hard rounds or more. This may be an example of too much, too soon for McGhee, but it is a test he has earned by notching four straight wins.

Sharabutdin Magomedov Wins by TKO/KO (-150)

With how much Magomedov has thrown in the Octagon to date, averaging nearly six lands per minute, it is surprising that he still connects north of a 60% clip. The same cannot be said for opponent Marc-Andre Barriault, who may actually swing more frequently but whose accuracy is 15% lower. This has all the makeup of a pure striking battle, with grappling only entering the picture if one of these two middleweights gets clipped. Based on recent successes and failures, Magomedov should have what it takes to get through Barriault’s defenses and do what he needs to do.

It was an eye-opening experience to watch “Shara Bullet” whiff as much as he did against the elusive Michael Page, as he adds his name to the list of snake-charmed adversaries. Other outings have seen great success for the Dagestan native on the feet, but the most important body of work is what he has done in the Octagon—early hook kick knockouts of Joel dos Santos and elbows of Mikhail Allakhverdian do not mean nearly as much as his double back fisting of Armen Petrosyan. With Magomedov just an inch shorter on the arms, he should have no problem reaching the Canadian. It could be rock-‘em sock-‘em robots until one of them falls, but the durability thus far is on the side of Magomedov.

Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-150)

Speaking of tilts bordering on being comically violent, this light heavyweight clash has the chance to deliver the winner a “Performance of the Night” bonus given that both men are fighting for a good time and not a long time. Krylov’s chin, which always seems to be on the gunnery range under fire, was not largely in question until Dominick Reyes shattered it in April. Some three-plus months later, it is tough to tell if all the king’s horses and all the king’s men helped put Humpty Dumpty Krylov back together yet. If he stands and bangs with Guskov, it will be lights out. However, if he takes the fight down to his territory, it is similarly his to prevail.

Krylov may not be the most successful takedown technician that Russia or Ukraine has ever offered, but at 205 pounds, he can hang with the best of them. The Reyes defeat snapped a three-fight win streak for the man formerly known as “Al Capone,” which accounts for his lengthiest such stretch since his first stint in the promotion when he celebrated five finishes in a row. The ultimate glass cannon fighter, Krylov will be in danger for every second this is on the feet, even though his striking is hardly subpar. Whether it is Guskov splattering Krylov across the Etihad Arena floor or Krylov ripping off a limb or taking a neck home with him, it should go down quickly and dramatically.